Η ληστεία συνεχίστηκε και μετά τα CDS! Δείτε τι απέκρυψε ο Στουρνάρας στην βουλή των Ελλήνων!
Εκτός εάν γνωρίζετε εσείς κάποια αντίστοιχη “επένδυση” που να
αποδίδει 500% κέρδος σε λίγους μήνες με κρατική εγγύηση! Ακόμα και στον
πιο ακραίο καπιταλισμό.
Οι ορδές των “φίλων επενδυτών” του Παπανδρέου πενταπλασίασαν τα
λεφτά τους ΕΓΓΥΗΜΕΝΑ, σε κάτι που το Bloomberg χαρακτήρισε ως την
μεγαλύτερη κερδοσκοπία πάνω σε κρατικά ομόλογα που έχει καταγραφεί. Το
γράφημα που βλέπετε, είναι ξεκαθαρο.
Εγγυητής; Ο Στουρνάρας! Πληρώνει τα ακούρευτα ομόλογα χωρίς να λογοδοτεί στην βουλή για το ΠΟΙΟΥΣ πληρώνει!
Χαμένοι; Εμείς. Η Ελλάδα. Εμείς τα πληρώνουμε και όπως
χαρακτηριστικά αναφέρει το πρακτορείο, δεν τα πληρώνουμε μόνο με χρήμα
αλλά και με πόνο.
Διαβάστε:
Greece Sells Low, Buys High
Κανείς δεν πληρώνει περισσότερο για να αγοράσει αυτά τα ομόλογα, από ότι η Ελλάδα.
Τουλάχιστον, όχι σε χρήμα. Μερικοί άνθρωποι καταβάλλουν για αυτά, πόνο.
Τώρα η Ελλάδα προσφέρει 30 με 40 σεντς στο δολάριο για τα ομόλογα.
Τα hedge funds που τα αγόρασαν για λιγότερο από ό, τι αυτό, φαίνονται
ευτυχή.
Αφού η Ελλάδα δηλώνει λιγότερο απεγνωσμένη πια και ότι υποστηρίζεται
περισσότερο απ την τρόικα, γιατί θα πρέπει να δέχεται αυτές τις τιμές;
Δείτε από την πλευρά του επενδυτή: αν δηλαδή πήρατε την αρχική
ελληνική τιμή, για τα παλιά ομόλογα σας, μέχρι τώρα, βγάζετε περισσότερο
απο 25-26 λεπτά ανα δολάριο.
Το οποίο υποθέτουμε είναι καλό πράγμα για εσάς.
Δείτε περισσότερα:
VIDEO.WSJ.Είναι αλήθεια,τα Funds αγοράζουν Ελλάδα, με 20 σεντς το δολάριο, περιμένοντας νεο PSI
That’s the entire history of the shortest-dated of bonds targeted
for a buyback at, you might notice, their all-time high price. Various
people have various reactions to this but one reaction that no one can
have is of the variety of “well, I paid more than that to buy it, so I’m
not selling it to you for less, since I live in a non-mark-to-market
dreamworld.” Nobody paid more to buy these bonds than Greece is planning
to.
At least, not in money. Some people paid for these bonds in
suffering; others – most others – paid for them in the form of old Greek
bonds, which once upon a time were, I guess, worth 100 cents on the
dollar. Later, they weren’t. Eventually they were rounded up in a
restructuring where every €1,000 of old bonds got exchanged into €315
face amount of new bonds, €150 face amount of let’s say par-ish EFSF
notes, and €315 face amount of Greek GDP-linked securities which were
worth around nothing. The total package was worth around €210-250,
depending on what day you looked at it, which if you do the math
assuming the EFSF bonds were worth par and the GDP warrants zero, gets
you a value for those new bonds of €60-100, or 19 to 32 cents on the
dollar of face amount.
Now Greece is offering 30 to 40 cents on the dollar for those bonds.
Hedge funds who bought them for less than that seem happy; Greek
hold-to-maturity banks are grumbly about being forced into the offer,
though for no discernibly good reason. Here you can fiddle with
calculations of how much Greece will save by doing this buyback.
Here you can look at additional fiddling, which does various lazy
simplifying things but makes the point that if instead of offering new
Greek bonds way back in the olden days of March, the Greece/Troika
entity had offered this deal, they could have retired about €40ish billion of debt, rather than the €29-31ish billion they’re targeting today.
Anyway, for your consideration. (Also consider: looking at that
table, why would Greece buy in any of its shorter-dated bonds? It’s
paying both a higher dollar price and a higher yield for the bonds
maturing in the 2020s; the higher dollar price means less “debt
sustainability” bang for your buck, while the higher yields will look
silly if Greece ever gets back to normal and its yield curve un-inverts.
Are they trying to buy roughly equal amounts of each bond to appease
the buy-and-hold investors who own the whole strip, or will they end up
weighting this toward the back end?)
Obviously the dynamics have changed: that graph at the top of this
post pretty much stands for the proposition “when you go around saying
you’re going to buy up your debt, your debt gets more expensive.” But as
someone who is generally a big believer in can-kicking, I find the
math, and the overall shape of that chart, somewhat sobering. Greece hit
bottom, more-or-less defaulted on its debt, and now … is coming back to
ask for more. On worse terms, which makes sense: with Greece looking
less desperate and more Troika-supported, why should you sell it back
its bonds at a steep discount?
I guess you can look at it from the investor’s perspective: if you
took the original Greek exchange, you thought you were getting 23 cents
on the dollar for your old bonds (and your CDS paid out ~78.5 cents); if
you held from now until then it turns out you’re getting more like
25-26 cents of value. (Plus maybe those GDP warrants will pay off?)
Which I guess is a good thing: it’s always easier to get investors to
take the next deal if they made out well on the last one. Perhaps this
sell-low-buy-high strategy is smart in the long run.
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